Daniel Davies’s Blog

About time! Four more weeks of this kind of straight talk, and he can still win this election. Keep it up Senator McCain!

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Here are a few good links: $700 Billion “Paulson Plan” would provide billions for left-leaning organizations that make the problem worse.
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/26/the-democratic-acorn-bailout/

More on ACORN:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121745181676698197.html http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkZrMpv0Pss

Info on the current “crisis” and how it came about:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5tZc8oH–o

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This is an excellent video that does a good job explaining what caused the current problems in the economy. Here, as with so many other issues, the credibility difference between McCain and Obama could not be any larger.

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Here’s my latest report from Campaigns and Elections class. Note that the assignment is supposed to base our analysis on the RCP projections, so that’s somewhat limiting. There are enough states that are close that this race could swing to look like a landslide either way on election day, with or without prior notice in the opinion polls. Anything can still happen.

At the last report, things were looking very bright for Senator John McCain in his Presidential campaign. His selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin had re-energized the GOP base that had been ho-hum about his candidacy, and he actually had a slight lead in national polls. Electorally, Obama had a slight lead when toss-up states (<4.7% margin) were included, but only by the 4-vote state of New Hampshire. All the momentum seemed to be on the side of McCain. Since that report, the momentum seems to have swung in Obama’s favor.
A look at the current Real Clear Politics election projection map shows that most of the states leaning the same way as before, with a few changes. Those shifting from “Toss-up” to “Leaning Obama” are Michigan (17EV), Colorado (9EV), and New Mexico (5EV), those from “Leaning Obama” to “Toss-up” are Wisconsin (10EV) and Minnesota (10EV), from “Leaning McCain” to “Tossup” is Florida (27EV), and from “Solid McCain to “Tossup” is North Carolina (15EV).

Obama has a slight lead (4EV) when any tossup states are given to the ticket with even the slightest lead, which is exactly the same as noticed in the previous report- no change in the last two weeks. Right now McCain has a slight lead (less than 3.5%) in Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia, Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina, all of which I feel fairly confident he will win. Obama has a 3.7-3.8% lead in 2 states: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while clinging to a 2.8% lead in Minnesota, and a miniscule .8% lead in New Hampshire. I still see New Hampshire going to McCain, having supported him in the 2000 and 2008 primaries. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be tougher, but definitely still possible if McCain gets a bump.

At this point, I still stand by my prediction of the switch of New Hampshire (4EV) to McCain, resulting in an electoral tie and throwing the election to the House of Representatives.

As often is the case, the economy appears likely to be the dominant issue during the last 40 days of the campaign. If McCain and the GOP leadership in Congress are able to stand firm by Conservative principles on the bailout proposal, establishing and communicating their positions clearly, I think the GOP could do well not only in the Presidential race, but also in the House and Senate. It appears to be impossible for the GOP to retake control of the House, and probably the Senate, but I think there could be a surprisingly good showing if they hold firm and demonstrate Conservative leadership on economic issues.

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I’m not Catholic, but this is a very well-done ad. I encourage everyone to put it on their blogs, Facebook profiles, etc. to encourage people to vote.

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Here’s an update on the Presidential race (my report from this morning):

The last report was given immediately following the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO, and though national trends seemed to indicate a strong anti-incumbency feeling, which should help Barack Hussein Obama, he had failed to put any distance between himself and John McCain.

The last two weeks have made a world of difference in this race. Going into their convention, there was only moderate support for the Republican nominee. One week after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, MN, it is a totally different story.

While the result of this year’s race for the White House is very much still in doubt, McCain has gone from down up to 6.4% to currently being up by 4.5% nationally. His extremely successful and historic selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of MN has energized the GOP base and women in general, including many Hillary Clinton supporters. The momentum has been totally on the side of the McCain-Palin ticket since the convention, and the Obama campaign has made several major mistakes in their desperate attempt so salvage the campaign in what Democrats anticipated to be a landslide year for them.

A look at the Real Clear Politics election projection map shows that most of the states leaning the same way as before, though several are more solidly in McCain’s column, or less solidly in Obama’s. Obama has a slight lead (4EV) when any tossup states are given to the ticket with even the slightest lead, but there is at least one state that I see switching. Right now McCain has a slight lead (less than 3.5%) in Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia, along with Indiana, listed as a tossup at 4.7%, all of which I feel confident he will win. Obama has a 2.0-3.3% lead in 5 states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. I see Colorado and New Mexico, states which border McCain’s home state of Arizona and where Western Governor Palin should have great appeal, as possibly sliding over towards the McCain-Palin ticket rather than the other way. New Hampshire loves McCain, having gone for him in the 2000 and 2008 primaries, and I could see him winning that as well. Michigan and Pennsylvania will be tougher, but definitely still possible if current trends continue.

One fascinating development that I noticed during the last report: with the current polling, the switch of New Hampshire (4EV) to McCain would result in an electoral tie and throw the election to the House of Representatives. This has been an amazing and historic campaign year, and it could get even crazier!

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Wow, if you think this election is wild now, it could get even crazier. For my Campaigns and Elections class, we have to project the elctoral results for the Presidential race, based on the polling at www.RealClearPolitics.com, so I was setting that up today and looking at the numbers. Right now, there are 41 states where the current leader in the RCP average has a >5% lead. Those states break 228-185 for Obama over McCain in the Electoral College.

There are three states that I’ll send Obama’s way for now:
Michigan (17 EV) 4.3% lead
New Mexico (5 EV) 4.3% lead
Minnesota (10 EV) 4.5% lead

Two are in McCain’s column for now:
Florida (27 EV) 3.6% lead
North Carolina (15 EV) 4.2% lead

The following five states are the real tossups- anywhere between a tie and a 1.2% lead:
Nevada (5 EV) McCain 1.0%
Ohio (20 EV) McCain 1.2%
New Hampshire (4 EV) Obama 0.3%
Colorado (9 EV) Obama 0.4%
Virginia (13 EV) Tie

Now for the fun part. Looking around the net and just based on my personal impressions, I gave Colorado to Obama and the other four states to McCain; guess what the result was? 269-269!!! In such an occasion, the election of the President goes to the house, with each state getting one vote, and 26 necessary to elect the President. The VP gets chosen by a simple majority vote of the Senate.

This site has more in-debth analysis, and it is pretty confident that the Dems. will control the delegations in the House.

This is definitely going to be an exciting year!

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You must watch this video. Texas Railroad Commission Chairman Michael Williams is probably the most popular speaker among Texas conservatives, and you’ll see why. Could you imagine him as the next Secretary of Energy under McCain?!?!

Michael Williams 2008 TX GOP Convention Speech

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I’ve been busy, but here are a couple great reads addressing the religious fervor some have toward Barack Obama, and what the man himself’s religious beliefs are by Jonah Godlberg and Cal Thomas.

In January, Obama told a crowd that “… a light will shine through that window, a beam of light will come down upon you, you will experience an epiphany, and you will suddenly realize that you must go to the polls and vote for Barack.”

And here’s a very freaky video:

Hillary knows the truth:

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