Daniel Davies’s Blog

Obama/McCain #5- October 20, 2008

Since the last analysis, five states have moved in Obama’s favor. The latest Real Clear Politics average ratings (0-5% tossup, 5-9% leaning, 9+% solid) contain the following changes in classification from last report:
Colorado tossup to Leaning Obama
Washington Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Wisconsin Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Michigan Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Montana Solid McCain to Leaning McCain

All these state moved one class in Obama’s direction , but for all it was actually only a change of less than four percentage points. RCP currently lists the “solid” Electoral Vote (EV) count at 249-137 in Obama’s favor. When all states rated “leaning” are credited to that candidate, Obama picks up 24 EVs to move from 249 to 273 (each down four from last report), McCain gains eighteen to go from 137 to 155, and tossups have moved up seven from 103 to 110. If this polling is accurate, then John McCain needs to carry all the tossup states (all currently with 4.2% or less margin) and pull 18 EVs from Obama. The lowest-hanging fruit for McCain to snag is the thirteen EVs from Virginia and the nine in Colorado: RCP currently has Obama with 8.1 and 6.0% leads respectively, in those states. Winning the tossups, CO and VA would give McCain a 274-264 victory. How possible is that scenario? The tossups, by definition, could go either way, but currently two favor McCain, and five Obama. All of the states McCain needs to pull to his side of the ledger voted for President Bush in both 2000 and 2004, including Virginia, which had an 8%+ margin each time. Virginia last voted Democrat in 1964, for LBJ; the same is true of Colorado with the exception of 1992, when Clinton won with 40% of the vote due to Perot pulling 26%.

This race is still very much winnable for McCain, but his campaign needs to execute very well over the next two weeks to pull it off. The mainstream media is will continue to go all-out for Obama; it is up to the McCain campaign, RNC, and grassroots Republican activists throughout the country to finish strong.

I still have severe doubts as to the accuracy of these polls. I have a hard time seeing VA, NC, and FL favoring Obama. I realize that CO and VA have both been trending more Democrat in recent years, but I don’t think they’re liberal enough to vote for the most liberal Democrat presidential candidate ever, if McCain and the GOP could just explain Obama’s socialist extremism to the voters.

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