Daniel Davies’s Blog

Obama/McCain #4- October 10, 2008

Since the last analysis, trending has continued to move in Obama’s favor. The latest Real Clear Politics average ratings (0-5% tossup, 5-9% leaning, 9+% solid) contain the following changes in classification from last report:
Minnesota tossup to Leaning Obama
Virginia tossup to Leaning Obama
Wisconsin tossup to Leaning Obama
New Hampshire tossup to Solid Obama
Oregon Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
New Jersey Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Pennsylvania Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Colorado Leaning Obama to Tossup
Missouri Leaning McCain to Tossup
West Virginia Solid McCain to Tossup
Georgia Solid McCain to Leaning McCain

All these state moved one class in Obama’s direction except New Hampshire and West Virginia (two classes towards Obama) and Colorado (one class towards McCain).
When all states rated “leaning” are credited to that candidate, Obama has picked up 18 Electoral College votes (EV) to move from 259 to 277, McCain has lost sixteen to go from 174 to 158, and tossups have moved down two from 105 to 103. If this polling is accurate, then John McCain needs to carry all the tossup states (all with 4% or less margin) and pull 9 EVs from Obama. The lowest-hanging fruit for McCain to snag is the thirteen EVs from Virginia, where RCP currently has Obama with a 5.1% lead. Winning the tossups and VA would give McCain a 274-264 victory. How possible is that scenario? The tossups, by definition, could go either way, but currently three favor McCain, and five Obama. All of the states McCain needs to pull to his side of the ledger voted for President Bush in both 2000 and 2004, including Virginia, which had an 8%+ margin each time. Virginia last voted Democrat in 1964, for LBJ.
This race is still very much winnable for McCain, but his campaign needs to execute very well over the next three weeks to pull it off. The mainstream media is constantly presenting Obama in a positive light, and McCain in a negative one, or simply giving more coverage to Obama than McCain. Many conservatives in the New Media also have not spoken well of McCain, even denigrating his performance in the second of three presidential debates, this past Tuesday evening. McCain’s campaign and surrogate organizations will have to really ramp up their advertizing to go over the media’s heads and present his message with clarity.
Obama must be exposed as the most liberal candidate for president the country has ever seen- most Americans are still conservative to some extent. His connections to radical leftists, to the Fannie, Freddie, ACORN, and the rest of the Democrat vote-buying machine must be exposed. John McCain’s strengths of fighting government excess and corruption, of bipartisanship, courage, and integrity must be stressed. The American people have been trained to respond like Pavlov’s dogs to images, sound-bytes, and other meaningless or deceptive factors, rather than judging on issues or character, so the task before the McCain team will not be easy.
A man who gave years of his life in service to his country, endured years of prison and torture, and has fought for his principles against even the leadership of his own party cannot be expected to give up and allow us to become a socialist nation. I for one think it foolish to count him out when less a 5% margin in nine states with over three weeks to go is all that separates him from victory.

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