Daniel Davies’s Blog

The latest update from my series of Campaigns & Elections class assignments…

Obama McCain update #6- October 24th, 2008

Since the last analysis, four states have changed categories: three in Obama’s favor and one in McCain’s. The latest Real Clear Politics average ratings (0-5% tossup, 5-9% leaning, 9+% solid) contain the following changes in classification from last report:
Minnesota: Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Ohio: Tossup to Leaning Obama
Montana: Leaning McCain to Tossup
West Virginia: Tossup to Leaning McCain

All these state moved one class, but for all it was actually only a change of less than four percentage points. RCP currently lists the “solid” Electoral Vote (EV) count at 259 (up 10 from last report)-137 in Obama’s favor. When all states rated “leaning” are credited to that candidate, Obama picks up 47 EVs to move from 259 to 306 (up 33 from last report), McCain gains twenty to go from 137 to 157 (up 3 from last report), and tossups have dropped 35 EVs from 110 to 75. If this polling is accurate, then John McCain needs to carry all the tossup states (all currently with 3.3% or less margin, down from 4.2%) and pull 37 EVs from Obama. The four Obama-leaners are Virginia (13EV), Colorado (9EV), Ohio (20EV), and New Mexico (9). RCP currently has Obama with 7.0, 5.4, 6.0, and 8.4% leads respectively, in those states. McCain needs to win the tossups (all of which are within a 3.4% margin of error), OH, VA, and either CO or NM to pull out a victory. How possible is that scenario? The tossups, by definition, could go either way, but currently three favor McCain, and four Obama. All of the states McCain needs to pull to his side of the ledger voted for President Bush in both 2000 and 2004, including Virginia, which had an 8%+ margin each time. Virginia last voted Democrat in 1964, for LBJ; the same is true of Colorado with the exception of 1992, when Clinton won with 40% of the vote due to Perot pulling 26%.
I still have severe doubts as to the accuracy of these polls. Thursday saw national polls come out with Obama’s lead ranging from 1-13 points! This race is totally unpredictable, and the polls are literally all over the place. Of the thirteen most recent polls listed on RCP the Obama leads are 13, 7, 4, 6, 12, 5, 9, 11, 1, 4, 10, 1, 8, 5, 14. No one really knows what’s going on. No one knows if all the young voters that Obama registered will turn out. No one knows how many of the ACORN registrants are actually legit. No one knows how many moderate white Democrats, especially women, will actually vote for Obama.
I have a hard time seeing VA, NC, IN, MN, FL, etc. favoring Obama. I realize that CO and VA have both been trending more Democrat in recent years, but I don’t think they’re liberal enough to vote for the most liberal Democrat presidential candidate ever, if McCain and the GOP could just explain Obama’s socialist extremism to the voters.
Many Republicans are buying all the media’s hype and are very discouraged about the election. I don’t think we should be. This race is far form over, and McCain and Plain are both fighters who won’t give in until every poll is closed, or even after.
It all comes down to the fact that the GOP and Christians have to get out there and make it happen. The GOP’s GOTV effort is well-established, professional, volunteer-driven, and proven for many elections now, while the Democrat strategy is relatively new and based on strong-arm tactics by unions, “community organizers” like ACORN’s criminal employees, paying workers, etc.

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The founder and chancellor of my school was on the Colbert Report last night. Fun stuff!

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Obama/McCain #5- October 20, 2008

Since the last analysis, five states have moved in Obama’s favor. The latest Real Clear Politics average ratings (0-5% tossup, 5-9% leaning, 9+% solid) contain the following changes in classification from last report:
Colorado tossup to Leaning Obama
Washington Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Wisconsin Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Michigan Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Montana Solid McCain to Leaning McCain

All these state moved one class in Obama’s direction , but for all it was actually only a change of less than four percentage points. RCP currently lists the “solid” Electoral Vote (EV) count at 249-137 in Obama’s favor. When all states rated “leaning” are credited to that candidate, Obama picks up 24 EVs to move from 249 to 273 (each down four from last report), McCain gains eighteen to go from 137 to 155, and tossups have moved up seven from 103 to 110. If this polling is accurate, then John McCain needs to carry all the tossup states (all currently with 4.2% or less margin) and pull 18 EVs from Obama. The lowest-hanging fruit for McCain to snag is the thirteen EVs from Virginia and the nine in Colorado: RCP currently has Obama with 8.1 and 6.0% leads respectively, in those states. Winning the tossups, CO and VA would give McCain a 274-264 victory. How possible is that scenario? The tossups, by definition, could go either way, but currently two favor McCain, and five Obama. All of the states McCain needs to pull to his side of the ledger voted for President Bush in both 2000 and 2004, including Virginia, which had an 8%+ margin each time. Virginia last voted Democrat in 1964, for LBJ; the same is true of Colorado with the exception of 1992, when Clinton won with 40% of the vote due to Perot pulling 26%.

This race is still very much winnable for McCain, but his campaign needs to execute very well over the next two weeks to pull it off. The mainstream media is will continue to go all-out for Obama; it is up to the McCain campaign, RNC, and grassroots Republican activists throughout the country to finish strong.

I still have severe doubts as to the accuracy of these polls. I have a hard time seeing VA, NC, and FL favoring Obama. I realize that CO and VA have both been trending more Democrat in recent years, but I don’t think they’re liberal enough to vote for the most liberal Democrat presidential candidate ever, if McCain and the GOP could just explain Obama’s socialist extremism to the voters.

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Obama/McCain #4- October 10, 2008

Since the last analysis, trending has continued to move in Obama’s favor. The latest Real Clear Politics average ratings (0-5% tossup, 5-9% leaning, 9+% solid) contain the following changes in classification from last report:
Minnesota tossup to Leaning Obama
Virginia tossup to Leaning Obama
Wisconsin tossup to Leaning Obama
New Hampshire tossup to Solid Obama
Oregon Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
New Jersey Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Pennsylvania Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Colorado Leaning Obama to Tossup
Missouri Leaning McCain to Tossup
West Virginia Solid McCain to Tossup
Georgia Solid McCain to Leaning McCain

All these state moved one class in Obama’s direction except New Hampshire and West Virginia (two classes towards Obama) and Colorado (one class towards McCain).
When all states rated “leaning” are credited to that candidate, Obama has picked up 18 Electoral College votes (EV) to move from 259 to 277, McCain has lost sixteen to go from 174 to 158, and tossups have moved down two from 105 to 103. If this polling is accurate, then John McCain needs to carry all the tossup states (all with 4% or less margin) and pull 9 EVs from Obama. The lowest-hanging fruit for McCain to snag is the thirteen EVs from Virginia, where RCP currently has Obama with a 5.1% lead. Winning the tossups and VA would give McCain a 274-264 victory. How possible is that scenario? The tossups, by definition, could go either way, but currently three favor McCain, and five Obama. All of the states McCain needs to pull to his side of the ledger voted for President Bush in both 2000 and 2004, including Virginia, which had an 8%+ margin each time. Virginia last voted Democrat in 1964, for LBJ.
This race is still very much winnable for McCain, but his campaign needs to execute very well over the next three weeks to pull it off. The mainstream media is constantly presenting Obama in a positive light, and McCain in a negative one, or simply giving more coverage to Obama than McCain. Many conservatives in the New Media also have not spoken well of McCain, even denigrating his performance in the second of three presidential debates, this past Tuesday evening. McCain’s campaign and surrogate organizations will have to really ramp up their advertizing to go over the media’s heads and present his message with clarity.
Obama must be exposed as the most liberal candidate for president the country has ever seen- most Americans are still conservative to some extent. His connections to radical leftists, to the Fannie, Freddie, ACORN, and the rest of the Democrat vote-buying machine must be exposed. John McCain’s strengths of fighting government excess and corruption, of bipartisanship, courage, and integrity must be stressed. The American people have been trained to respond like Pavlov’s dogs to images, sound-bytes, and other meaningless or deceptive factors, rather than judging on issues or character, so the task before the McCain team will not be easy.
A man who gave years of his life in service to his country, endured years of prison and torture, and has fought for his principles against even the leadership of his own party cannot be expected to give up and allow us to become a socialist nation. I for one think it foolish to count him out when less a 5% margin in nine states with over three weeks to go is all that separates him from victory.

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About time! Four more weeks of this kind of straight talk, and he can still win this election. Keep it up Senator McCain!

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