Here’s an update on the Presidential race (my report from this morning):
The last report was given immediately following the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO, and though national trends seemed to indicate a strong anti-incumbency feeling, which should help Barack Hussein Obama, he had failed to put any distance between himself and John McCain.
The last two weeks have made a world of difference in this race. Going into their convention, there was only moderate support for the Republican nominee. One week after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, MN, it is a totally different story.
While the result of this year’s race for the White House is very much still in doubt, McCain has gone from down up to 6.4% to currently being up by 4.5% nationally. His extremely successful and historic selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of MN has energized the GOP base and women in general, including many Hillary Clinton supporters. The momentum has been totally on the side of the McCain-Palin ticket since the convention, and the Obama campaign has made several major mistakes in their desperate attempt so salvage the campaign in what Democrats anticipated to be a landslide year for them.
A look at the Real Clear Politics election projection map shows that most of the states leaning the same way as before, though several are more solidly in McCain’s column, or less solidly in Obama’s. Obama has a slight lead (4EV) when any tossup states are given to the ticket with even the slightest lead, but there is at least one state that I see switching. Right now McCain has a slight lead (less than 3.5%) in Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia, along with Indiana, listed as a tossup at 4.7%, all of which I feel confident he will win. Obama has a 2.0-3.3% lead in 5 states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. I see Colorado and New Mexico, states which border McCain’s home state of Arizona and where Western Governor Palin should have great appeal, as possibly sliding over towards the McCain-Palin ticket rather than the other way. New Hampshire loves McCain, having gone for him in the 2000 and 2008 primaries, and I could see him winning that as well. Michigan and Pennsylvania will be tougher, but definitely still possible if current trends continue.
One fascinating development that I noticed during the last report: with the current polling, the switch of New Hampshire (4EV) to McCain would result in an electoral tie and throw the election to the House of Representatives. This has been an amazing and historic campaign year, and it could get even crazier!